Job Market Thaw: Hiring Picks Up, But Don't Call It a Boom
The Atlantic6 days ago
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Job Market Thaw: Hiring Picks Up, But Don't Call It a Boom

INDUSTRY INSIGHTS
jobmarket
hiringtrends
useconomy
employment
labormarket
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Summary:

  • The US job market is thawing after a Big Freeze in 2025, with average monthly hiring rising from 10,000 to 114,000 jobs in 2026.

  • Unemployment remained low at 4.3% in 2025, partly due to reduced immigration under Trump's enforcement policies.

  • Employers are cautiously adding jobs but still monitoring the situation amid policy uncertainties.

  • The recovery is moderate, not a boom, and hiring is just one indicator of economic health.

The American labor market is showing signs of life after a prolonged slowdown. According to a recent article in The Atlantic, the pace of hiring is slowly emerging from stasis—emphasis on slowly.

May was a good month for the labor market, as were April and March. The economy is once again adding tens of thousands of new jobs across a range of industries. However, experts caution against calling it a boom.

Last year, the job market was trapped in what was described as the Big Freeze—unemployment was low, but finding new work was difficult. The hiring rate was as slow as it had been since the start of the pandemic. Now, we're in something like a spring thaw. Employers have added, on average, 114,000 jobs a month this year, a notable reversal from the 10,000 a month average in 2025. But this is moderate growth, not a radical expansion.

The great hiring slowdown of 2025 had several possible explanations. The Trump administration's stepped-up immigration enforcement led to the deportation of hundreds of thousands of people, reducing the number of job seekers. The Congressional Budget Office estimated net migration at 410,000 last year, about one-fifth of previous projections. Additionally, aggressive new tariff policies may have contributed to employers' reluctance to hire. Broadly, employers seemed to be monitoring the situation, waiting for the right time to expand their workforce.

While hiring is picking up, it's just one metric of economic health. The cautious transition suggests that employers are still wary, but the trend is positive for job seekers.

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