Will Public Service Jobs Survive Trump's Tariff Storm? Experts Weigh In

Are public service jobs tariff proof?

If Canada tips into a recession due to U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs, experts say there won't be an appetite for deep cuts to the public service.

Regardless of who wins the next election, experts say the effects of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs will prevent any significant cuts to the federal public service.
Photo by Andrej Ivanov/AFG via Getty

There are no immediate or short-term threats to federal public servants’ jobs under Trump tariff threats, public service experts say. In recent months, public servants and the unions that represent them have been reeling since the federal government signalled the jobs of permanent employees could be on the chopping block in a review of public spending. The federal government has started to try to curb the size of the public service as its ranks ballooned since the Liberals were elected in 2015.

Observers say that the economic uncertainty and a potential recession from Trump’s tariffs could provide temporary relief from layoffs for federal public servants. “During a massive recession, the appetite for cutting the public service is never there,” Donald Savoie, a public administration expert, told the Ottawa Citizen.

Both Mark Carney, the prime minister designate, and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre have indicated intentions to limit the size of the public service. However, experts agree that any significant changes will likely wait until after the tariff situation stabilizes.

Carney's recent election as the leader of the Liberals suggests a shift in political dynamics, with potential impacts on public sector reforms. The looming threat of Trump's tariffs means that any proposed changes to the public service will take a back seat.

“I think the Trump tariffs are going to suck all the oxygen in the room, in the prime minister’s office, in cabinet,” Savoie predicted. “The next few months will be dominated by tariff discussions.”

Last year, the federal government announced plans to cut the public service by 5,000 positions over four years, aiming to save $15.8 billion. Initially, layoffs for permanent employees were ruled out, but the situation has changed, leading to the potential for job cuts.

Experts suggest that the future of public service jobs remains uncertain, influenced by political outcomes and the broader economic landscape. “Ultimately, the major force shaping the future of the public service will be politics,” said Michael Wernick, a former top civil servant.

With the double uncertainty affecting public servants from both Washington and Ottawa, it remains to be seen how these dynamics will unfold in the coming years.