The Truth About LNG Jobs in Canada: Why Promises Are Falling Short

Recent research from Simon Fraser University reveals that liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects in British Columbia are not delivering the economic benefits they promised. Despite claims of massive investment and job creation, the reality paints a different picture.

Economic Promises vs. Reality

In 2013, Premier Christy Clark promised that LNG investments would create 100,000 jobs and generate enough revenue to seed a sovereign wealth fund. Fast forward to today, and only one project—LNG Canada—is operational, employing just 300 people permanently. This is a far cry from the initial projections.

Our analysis shows that claims about investment and jobs are drastically overblown. Prospective tax revenues have been decimated by legislative changes, and offshoring and foreign ownership undercut the growth these projects might bring.

Market Challenges and Competition

B.C. faces stiff competition in the global LNG market. Producers closer to buyers in Asia and Europe, with lower labor costs and existing infrastructure, have a significant advantage. Additionally, we are entering a period of LNG oversupply driven by export development in the U.S., just as the energy transition in Asia takes off.

LNG demand has already fallen in India and China, and Pakistan is canceling shipments because solar energy is outcompeting gas. Many forecasts indicate that international prices will slump as supply overwhelms demand.

Impact on Other Industries and Households

LNG expansion could raise costs for other industries in B.C., including forestry and mining. Based on price forecasts, the average household in Vancouver might see their annual costs increase by $188.39, while industrial users could face a collective rise of $222.76 million in 2026 alone.

If LNG expansion raises utility rates, it could crowd out other economic activity, effectively redistributing B.C. ratepayers' dollars to foreign shareholders rather than fostering broad-based growth.

Environmental Claims Under Scrutiny

Proponents argue that LNG can reduce emissions by displacing coal in Asia, but there is no evidence that this displacement has ever happened. In fact, some studies suggest that LNG's warming effect might be worse than coal due to methane emissions associated with production and transport.

The Path Forward

It's not too late to change course. Instead of committing to a dying industry, B.C. and Canada could focus on sustainable economic development that benefits all Canadians without harming affordability or the environment.

Andy Hira is a professor of political science at Simon Fraser University and the director of the Clean Energy Research Group. Nick Gottlieb is a Vanier Scholar and a PhD candidate in the department of geography.