Manitoba's Job Market Rollercoaster: From August Losses to September Rebound – What's Next?

Manitoba's Job Market Takes a Wild Ride

New labour force data from Statistics Canada reveals a dramatic shift in Manitoba's employment landscape. The province experienced a sharp downturn in August 2025, losing over 5,000 jobs, before staging a strong recovery in September with nearly 4,000 new positions added.

August's Troubling Decline

Manitoba's job market took a significant hit in August, with two-thirds of the losses being full-time positions. This pushed the unemployment rate up by 0.2 percentage points to 5.7%. The manufacturing sector was particularly hard hit, with employment falling by 5.8% (approximately 4,300 jobs) between July and August.

Manufacturing losses were concentrated in:

• Transportation equipment manufacturing: Down 24.8% (2,600 jobs)
• Wood product manufacturing: Down 42.9% (1,200 jobs)

These declines were largely attributed to ongoing U.S. trade tariffs, which have made exports less competitive and created uncertainty for investment planning.

The mining sector also suffered, with employment down 13.4% (nearly 900 jobs) following summer wildfire emergencies that displaced tens of thousands of northern residents and temporarily shuttered several mining operations.

September's Remarkable Recovery

In a dramatic turnaround, September saw robust employment growth with full-time employment surging by 11,100 jobs – more than offsetting the previous month's losses. Manitoba became one of only three provinces to post employment gains during this period.

Key September highlights:

• Average hourly wages climbed 4.1% year-over-year
• Both public and private sectors posted gains
• Employment among women rose by 1.2%
• Youth unemployment eased to 12.4%
• Manitoba maintained one of the three lowest unemployment rates in Canada

Regional Variations Across Manitoba

The economic impact varied significantly across the province:

• Southeast region (anchored by Steinbach): Showed remarkable resilience with the province's lowest unemployment rate at 3.6% and year-over-year employment growth of 7.6%
• Winnipeg: Recorded the highest jobless rate at 7.0%, partly due to the end of 250 temporary contracts at Canada Revenue Agency tax centers
• Parklands and North region: Experienced job losses of nearly 1% year-over-year, largely due to wildfire evacuation disruptions

Agricultural Sector Shows Mixed Results

While most sectors struggled in August, agriculture employment rose 15.2%, adding roughly 2,000 jobs compared to July. However, industry experts warn these gains could be short-lived due to China's 75.8% tariff on Canadian canola seed imports introduced in mid-August.

Manitoba produces over 15% of Canada's canola and supports about 35,000 jobs in farming and processing annually.

Government Response and Outlook

Jamie Moses, Minister of Business, Mining, Trade and Job Creation, stated: "These results show that despite an uncertain trade environment, Manitobans are optimistic about job opportunities and are re-entering the workforce with confidence. Our government will continue supporting skills development and investment to ensure this momentum translates into long-term growth."

The data suggests that despite sector-specific vulnerabilities, Manitoba's labour market demonstrates significant resilience and capacity for rapid recovery.