How Jobs Data Reveals the Hidden Health of North America's Economy: A Critical Signal for Growth

Fresh services-sector data are offering investors insight into the underlying health of the North American economy, with particular focus on whether labour conditions are starting to soften after a period of resilience. While headline activity levels remain mixed, employment trends are increasingly seen as a critical signal for growth.

BNN Bloomberg spoke with Garnet Anderson, head of portfolio management at Tacita Capital, about what services PMI data reveal about economic momentum, how labour trends differ between the U.S. and Canada, and where investors are finding longer-term opportunities amid shifting conditions.

Key Takeaways

• Services PMI readings provide an early look at economic momentum, with employment components offering particularly important signals beneath headline activity levels.
• Labour trends appear to be diverging, with modest stabilization in the U.S. contrasting with softer employment conditions in Canada.
• Global services activity remains more resilient than domestic Canadian data, suggesting uneven growth across regions.
• Infrastructure tied to long-term data usage continues to benefit from structural demand despite periods of slower near-term investment.
• Consumer-facing growth stories remain attractive when supported by execution and momentum, though valuation and fashion-cycle risks require close monitoring.

Garnet Anderson, head of portfolio management at Tacita Capital

Read the full transcript below:

ANDREW: We are awaiting the release of PMI numbers at 9:45 a.m. Eastern time. Our guest, in particular, is focused on employment details south of the border, which could be a weak link for the U.S. economy. We are joined by Garnet Anderson, head of portfolio management at Tacita Capital. Thanks for joining us, Garnet.

GARNET: Thank you for having me.

ANDREW: So, just a reminder, what are we due to get at 9:45?

GARNET: What we’re seeing today is really the PMI services data. The Purchasing Managers’ Index is basically a survey of purchasing managers, either in the U.S., Canada or globally, and they’re asked whether activity this month is higher or lower than the last month. If you get a reading above 50, it means business is growing. The higher above 50, the more acceleration you get. For example, if you take a look at Canada, its services data are coming out.

ANDREW: At 9:45?

GARNET: Yes, this morning. When you look at last month — November’s was reported in December — it basically fell off a cliff, going from above 50 down to about 46 in Canada.

ANDREW: In Canada? Sorry — is this services or manufacturing?

GARNET: Services in Canada, which was a little bit surprising because services had been holding up for a while. But we saw that come off. We saw some job losses from news that came out, and we saw work backlogs being chewed through. When you put that into the global picture, where Canada ranks toward the bottom of the table in terms of activity levels, it’s a bit more buoyant. Outputs have continued to grow, but backlogs have started to come in a little bit. To chew into that, there has been some buoyancy recently. After a pause in employment, people are looking toward 2026 and thinking it will be a calmer year than 2025, and they started to hire a little bit in November. It will be interesting to see if that continues in December.

ANDREW: So just to clarify, at 9:45 we’re getting numbers on Canadian services.

GARNET: And global services.

ANDREW: OK, but not U.S. manufacturing.

GARNET: Correct.

ANDREW: I got that mixed up, and I’m sorry.

GARNET: Oh no, that’s OK.

ANDREW: Turning briefly to the U.S. economy, employment is on your radar?

GARNET: It is. First of all, there was the shutdown, which messed up the numbers, so we’re in a bit of a catch-up period trying to get a trend. When people look at continuing claims or new jobless claims at a single point in time, it doesn’t tell much of a story. It’s easy to get alarmist. You’re really looking for trends, and that pause in data hurts some of that trend watching. As new numbers come out, that will help us see the picture more clearly. PMI numbers give a month-by-month read because they’re surveys of actual businesses. In the U.S., we’re seeing a little improvement in the employment picture — not back to where it was — while in Canada, we’re seeing it head a bit the other way.

ANDREW: You have some stock ideas for us. Let’s start with American Tower. They’re obviously an infrastructure player.

GARNET: They are, and they’re a nice diversified play for someone with a Canadian portfolio of REITs and infrastructure stocks. We don’t really have a single-purpose tower REIT or company in Canada, and they are a world leader. The largest player globally is in China, but American Tower is the world leader on the independent front. They own cell towers, and when you think about cell data usage, it just continues to go up. We went from 3G to 4G to 5G, and each step increases usage. Then you think about wearables — watches, eyeglasses and more — which drive usage higher. As we move more toward robotics, all of that drives data. Cars will eventually drive a lot of data as well. American Tower owns the towers, and while 6G is still a couple of years away, they’re positioning for it. In 2021, they also bought a data-centre business. It’s not a hyperscaler, but it links in with them. If you’re operating something like a robot, you can’t necessarily have decisions being made in a data centre in Seattle if you’re in New York or North Bay. There’s a tendency to have intermediate players closer to where the activity is. They have roughly 150,000 towers and a lot of real estate.

ANDREW: Fifty thousand.

GARNET: Yes — it’s massive, including towers on buildings and other sites. As they move modular data centres closer to those towers and better utilize their real estate, they gain operating efficiencies. That has been a higher-growth area. Tower growth itself has slowed a bit. They sold their business in India, and some U.S. carriers have pulled back on building new towers. But long term, data usage will be there. We’re constructive on the stock. It’s a good diversifier and helps balance some Canadian exposure.

ANDREW: Speaking of wearables, I just got a smartwatch. Nothing fancy, but it’s already told me I’m overweight and to get off the couch and walk around.

GARNET: It is just after the holidays. That’s a fair call.

ANDREW: We’re tight for time. Aritzia reports this week. Do you see upside?

GARNET: We do. It’s like a six-cylinder car driving on seven cylinders — you’re doing pretty well across everything, from fashion and inventory to margins, U.S. store expansion and the mobile app. It’s a good company and a good stock, with reasonable upside. Analysts are pushing it higher. A word of caution, though: it’s still a fashion story. They’re executing very well, but fashion can come and go. We could have been having this same conversation about Lululemon four years ago. From a momentum perspective, you can’t just buy it and park it for 10 years — you need to watch it. Management is doing a fantastic job, and expectations for earnings after Thursday’s close are for another upside surprise. If that happens, as it did last time, you’ll likely see a pop in the stock.

ANDREW: Thanks very much, Garnet. Garnet Anderson of Tacita Capital.

This BNN Bloomberg summary and transcript of the Jan. 6, 2026 interview with Garnet Anderson are published with the assistance of AI. Original research, interview questions and added context was created by BNN Bloomberg journalists. An editor also reviewed this material before it was published to ensure its accuracy and adherence with BNN Bloomberg editorial policies and standards.