Declining Foreign Interest in U.S. Jobs: A Threat to Labor Shortages and Economic Growth

Foreign Interest in U.S. Jobs Drops to 2019 Levels

Recent data from Indeed reveals a significant decline in foreign interest in U.S. job listings, now matching levels last seen in March 2019. This trend could worsen labor shortages, particularly in critical sectors like health care.

Key Findings from Indeed Hiring Lab

• The share of clicks on U.S. job listings from outside the country has dropped by nearly 30% since its peak in August 2023.
• White-collar occupations, especially in STEM fields, have seen the sharpest declines.
• The retreat is attributed to anti-immigrant rhetoric during the 2024 presidential campaign and new immigration policies under U.S. President Donald Trump.

Economic Implications

• Labor shortages could become more pronounced, particularly in health care, where immigrants fill 26% of physician and surgeon roles and 40% of home health-care aide positions.
• Productivity and economic growth may suffer if declining interest translates into lower actual immigration.
• Inflation could rise as businesses struggle to fill vacancies.

Global Context

• Similar trends are observed in Canada and Australia, where foreign job interest has tapered off due to cooler economies and stricter immigration policies.
• Australia maintains a higher net gain in foreign job interest, coinciding with its increased cap for permanent migrants in 2022.

Methodology

Indeed tracks job clicks from candidates in 254 countries and territories using IP addresses to gauge geographic interest.

Photo by AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh